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Global Economy updates

This article is an on-site version of our The Week Ahead newsletter. Sign up here to get the newsletter sent straight to your inbox every Sunday

Welcome to the working week, that is if you are still at your desk.

Holiday season is in full swing in the northern hemisphere, or at least it should be. Do you feel it?

Unlocking travel will be a theme of the next seven days, in turn raising concerns about governments storing up problems with rising Covid-19 infections later in the year.

From 4am on Monday morning the UK will accept travellers arriving from the EU and US who have been double-jabbed. International cruises will also be able to start again from British ports after a 16-month break.

Travel and tourism businesses are cock-a-hoop, although as Delphine Strauss, Financial Times economics correspondent, noted last week, the domestic holiday market has already been enjoying a bumper year thanks to Brits embracing the “staycation” — a word I loathe. Perhaps some will be attracted to the Edinburgh Fringe, returning to the streets of Auld Reekie on Friday after last year’s online-only event — for those unable to make it, there will still be online events to watch from the comfort of your laptop.

In the US, the annual community-building event, National Night Out, will have a particular significance for American hospitality businesses, eager to see the economy reopen fully. On the corporate front, Marriott reports its second-quarter earnings on Tuesday, giving some insight into how the hotel industry is coping.

The path out of pandemic is not linear, however. The police and army presence is being increased in Sydney, which has been under stay-at-home orders since late June, after a rise in Covid-19 cases.

If you need a boost, there is always the Tokyo Olympics — FT reporters will be covering the action.

Amid the joys of medal successes — see the FT’s alternative take on this here — Japan will also be a focus for sombre reflection this week: Friday is the 76th anniversary of the nuclear bomb being dropped on Hiroshima.

Thank you everyone who has been emailing — to [email protected] — with comments about The Week Ahead. We are listening to your suggestions, including a tweak to the presentation of the corporate earnings below, hopefully making them slightly easier to digest.

Companies

This is a week for insurance earnings reports. French insurance company Axa is hoping to resolve a bruising dispute with the hospitality industry over pandemic claims, after offering a settlement in June to restaurateurs in its home market that is expected to cost the group about €300m. 

But with legal disputes ongoing over business-interruption claims flowing from the pandemic, the Covid-related bill for many insurers remains uncertain, so Axa’s second-quarter earnings on Monday will be watched closely. The insurer’s management may also provide more detail on the ransomware attack on its Asian operations, which the FT revealed in May. 

London-listed insurer Hiscox reports half-year results on Tuesday. After a grim pandemic for the group, which was itself forced to pay out on a swath of business-interruption policies after an industry-wide test case, the company announced in July that long-term chief executive Bronek Masojada was to depart the underwriter.

Direct Line, the London-listed insurer, also reports on Tuesday ahead of a big regulatory shake-up to prices in the UK car and home insurance market. It is a volatile time for motor insurers, in particular, as more cars return to the roads after a pandemic slump in driving that slashed claims and then pulled prices lower. 

The impact Covid has had on the motoring side of things will also be worth watching at the general insurance division of Italy’s biggest insurer Generali, which also has half-year results on Tuesday. Europe’s biggest insurer, Allianz, which reports on Friday, may offer further information on claims in Germany from July’s devastating floods, which it expects to lead to more than €500m in payouts.

Good news is likely from coronavirus vaccine maker Moderna, if last week’s figures from rivals Pfizer and AstraZeneca are anything to go by.

Economic Data

This week’s rush of Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures for manufacturing and services in July will provide further insight into the health of the economic recovery from the Covid-19 slump.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

  • China, Eurozone, France, Germany, India, Japan, UK: Manufacturing PMI data

  • US, Construction spending figures

  • Axa H1, Ferrari Q1, Heineken H1, HSBC H1, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Q1

Tuesday

  • Australia, Reserve Bank of Australia to hold its monthly meeting

  • Canada, Markit manufacturing PMI data

  • US, Census Bureau publishes monthly motor vehicle sales figures

  • UK, Office for National Statistics publishes quarterly GDP data

  • Assicurazioni Generali H1, Bank of Ireland Q2, BMW H1, BP Q2 ConocoPhillips Q2, Direct Line Insurance Q2, Domino’s Pizza Q2, Eli Lilly & Co Q2, Generali H1, Greggs H1, Hiscox H1, Infineon Technologies Q3, Japan Airlines Q1, Lyft Q2, Marriott International Q2, Nippon Steel and Sumitomo Metal Corporation Q1, Prudential Financial Q2, Ralph Lauren Q2, Société Générale Q2, Standard Chartered Bank H1, Stellantis H1

Wednesday

  • China, Eurozone, France, Germany, India, Japan, UK, US: Services PMI data

  • EU, Eurostat publishes monthly retail trade figures

  • Italy, monthly retail sales figures

  • UK, Bank of England publishes official holdings of international reserves

  • US, ADP employment numbers

  • Allied Irish Banks H1, Commerzbank Q2, General Motors Q2, Honda Motor Q1, Hugo Boss Q2, Kraft Heinz Q2, Legal & General H1, Next Q2 trading statement, SoftBank Q1, Sony, Q1 Taylor Wimpey H1, Toyota Q1, Uber Technologies Q2, Western Union Q2

Thursday

  • Eurozone, ECB publishes economic bulletin

  • France, Industrial production figures

  • Germany, Monthly manufacturers’ (factory) orders data published

  • Germany, IHS Markit construction PMI

  • UK, Bank of England holds its next MPC meeting on interest rates

  • UK, Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders new car registration data

  • UK, IHS Markit/Cips construction PMI

  • US, Department of Commerce publishes monthly international trade figures

  • US, Initial jobless claims

  • Adecco Q2, Adidas H1, AIG Q2, Bayer H1, Bombardier Q2, CBS Q2, Continental H1, Crédit Agricole Q2, Glencore H1 production report, Hammerson H1, Investec AGM, Kellogg Q2, Lufthansa Q2, Moderna Q2, Mondi H1, Nintendo Q1, Novo Nordisk Q2, Pirelli Q2, Rolls-Royce H1, Serco H1, Siemens Q3, Swisscom H1, Thomson Reuters Q2, Viacom Q2, WPP H1

Friday

  • Canada, Monthly unemployment rate

  • France, Monthly balance of trade figures

  • Germany, Industrial production data

  • UK, Halifax monthly and yearly house price indices

  • UK, British Retail Consortium publishes BRC-ShopperTrak footfall monitor

  • US, Federal Reserve consumer instalment credit figures

  • US, Non-farm payroll figures

  • US, Monthly unemployment statistics

  • Allianz Q2, AP Moller Maersk Q2, Capita H1, ING Q2, NTT Q1, RTL Q2, TripAdvisor Q2

World events

Here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

  • US, Senate meets in Washington

  • UK, England to allow fully vaccinated travellers from the US and EU to arrive without needing to quarantine

Tuesday

  • US, National Night Out, an annual community-building event, promoting better relations with local police forces, is held in most US states

  • India, Festival of Krishna Janmashtami, marking the birth of Hindu God Krishna

Wednesday

  • UK, Playday, an annual celebration of children’s right to play takes place

  • US, Illinois holds Barack Obama Day, honouring the 44th president on his birthday

Thursday

Friday

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